I’m making a mock draft of the first two rounds based on the rumor mill and previous GM tenancies.
1st Round
1. Detroit Lions – Adrian Peterson (23)
As long as he can stay healthy, Peterson looks to be the most productive Running Back for the next 5-8 years. Look for the Lions to add Peterson, who at 23 years old is a stud running back that they can build teams around now, as well as down the road.
2. Cleveland Browns – Steven Jackson (24)
Jackson is another stud, workhorse running back that the Browns could build around for many years to come. Ladanian Tomlinson is probably the best overall back when your drafting at two, but at 29 years old, there are question marks that remain about his durability in a keeper league. Look for the Browns to draft Jackson.
3. Miami Dolphins – Ladanian Tomlinson (29)
Tomlinson, is arguably the best player currently in the draft. He is capable of putting up 280+ fantasy point seasons for at least two more seasons. There are questions that remain unanswered though, will he be another Shaun Alexander? Who at 30 years of age and two seasons off an MVP season, forgot how to run. Look for the Dolphins to take a “win now” approach to the season if they draft Tomlinson.
4. Buffalo Bills – Joseph Addai (25)
Addai, at 25 years of age, has been a consistant NFL running back for the past two seasons. While in a redraft league, Brian Westbrook would be a tempting option, Addai is much younger and has shown to be much more durable than Westbrook. Look for the Bills to add a young running back who can produce now as well as in future seasons.
5. Seattle Seahawks – Frank Gore (25)
The Seahawks, who have shown interest in Addai, would likely take Gore if Addai was not available. Gore is coming off a disappointing season in ‘07 (30th best player), despite being the 5th best player in 06. In Gore, the Seahawks would get a young, durable fantasy back who will look to rebound under Mike Martz’ system in San Francisco. The Seahawks have shown no interest in drafting Brian Westbrook, who they believe will be a disappointment durability-wise for many seasons to come.
6. Arizona Cardinals – Clinton Portis (26)
The GM of the Arizona Cardinals has shown interest in Portis, despite Brian Westbrook being a much higher ranked player. Portis, who missed half of the ‘06 campaign, rebounded with a solid ‘07, posting up 1262 yards and 11 touchdowns. Still, you can’t overlook the durability issues that have plagued Portis, and you can’t help but wonder if the Cardinals are valuing him too high at 6th overall. Portis, at 26 years old, will be a solid back for a few seasons, but don’t be surprised if the Cardinals look to trade down to take Portis at a more reasonable pick.
7. New York Giants – Brian Westbrook (28 )
Brian Westbrook has cemented himself as one of the top running backs in the league, with two straight 1900 multipurpose yard seasons (receiving and rushing) and two straight 7 TD seasons. Still, there are question marks regarding his diminutive frame (5′8, 203 pounds) and his ability to be a solid running back in a fantasy keeper league for years to come, and at 28 years old you can look for his numbers to decline soon. Look for the Giants to select Westbrook here, and take a “win now” approach to the season.
8. Washington Redskins – Randy Moss (31)
Moss is coming off an amazing 2007 season, where he was the 3rd best overall player. Still, a 31 year old wide receiver isn’t really the type of guy you build a team around for the future. If he can give you decent numbers for 2-3 more seasons though, he is worth the risk when you are drafting 8th.
9. Houston Texans – Tom Brady (30)
Brady was hands down the best fantasy player last season, with just ridiculous numbers. Look for the Houston Texans GM to take Brady for the 2nd season in a row, and build his team around Brady’s successes in New England. At 30 years old, Brady is still a guy who will be a solid fantasy quarterback for a few more seasons to come.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Marion Barber (25)
Barber, at 25 years old, is seen by many as a steal at 10. Posting up 975 yards and 10 touchdowns with the Cowboys last season, there is no reason to believe his numbers won’t increase with the departure of Julius Jones. Still, a running back who only scores touchdowns isn’t the best player to build a team around, but is definently a good pick at 10.
Round 2
11. Jacksonville Jaguars – Marshawn Lynch (22)
Look for the Jags to create a dual headed running back monster for many seasons to come by adding Marshawn Lynch. Lynch, at 22, is heading into his 2nd season after posting up huge rookie numbers. The Jags would have an extremely solid core in Barber and Lynch to build around now and for the future.
12. Houston Texans – Larry Johnson ( 28 )
Johnson, at 28, is looking to rebound from an injury plagued 2007 after posting up huge numbers in ‘06. If the Texans added Johnson, they would field an extremely dangerous team in ‘08 with the tandem of Brady and LJ. Look for Johnson to post up much better statistics behind a decent Chiefs O-line in ‘08.
13. Washington Redskins – Willis McGahee (26)
McGahee is another young, premier workhorse backs that is entering his prime. McGahee has been in the league for 4 seasons, and has only sustained one major injury. The rest of his seasons have been solid, but unspectacular. Look for Washington to tandem McGahee and Moss as two of their pieces for the future.
14. New York Giants – Reggie Wayne (29)
If the Giants take an older back like Westbrook with their first rounder, look for them to add another valuable fantasy asset in their prime, in Reggie Wayne. A case could be made for Peyton Manning here, but Wayne dropped 1500 yards and 10 TDs on the league last season, and at 29, he is a full 3 years younger than Manning.
15. Arizona Cardinals – Tony Romo ( 28 )
Rumor has it the Cards like Romo, which is a bit of a surprise given that he is not ranked as high as QB Peyton Manning. Romo, at 28, posted up very good fantasy stats last season for the Cowboys, and there isn’t any reason why he couldn’t do it again. Romo has got at least 3-4 solid years in him, and the Cards will look to build around Portis and Romo.
16. Seattle Seahawks – Braylon Edwards (25)
Edwards is the best of a group of 24-26 year old WR’s that include Edwards, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston and Larry Fitzgerald. Edwards posted up huge numbers for Cleveland last season, benefiting from the breakout year by Derek Anderson. Look for the Seahawks to add a young, stud wideout to compliment Frank Gore.
17. Buffalo Bills – Andre Johnson (26)
Johnson is the second best of the 24-26 year old Wideouts, and he also posted decent numbers in the Texans system, despite being injured for most of the season. Look for the Bills to tag Johnson and Addai as their WR-RB combo of the future, similiar to what teams in Seattle, New York and Washington are doing.
18. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Grant (25)
Ryan Grant posted up huge numbers with the Packers on limited rushes last season, and at 25, he looks to become the new Packers full time running back. Seen as a sleeper in most leagues, Grant could potentially drop 250+ fantasy points on the league for 4-5 years to come. Look for the Dolphins to tag Tomlinson and Grant this season as their starting running backs.
19. Cleveland Browns – Ronnie Brown (26)
The Browns are another team that are looking to draft a couple young, premier backs, and Ronnie Brown is just that. Despite being injured for much of the ‘07 campaign, Brown has shown that he can put up monstrous numbers in the Dolphins system. Despite Ricky Williams rejoining the Dolphins backfield, I see injuries being more of a concern to a potential fantasy owner as Brown will get a majority of the carries for Miami.
20. Detroit Lions – Larry Fitzgerald (24)
The Lions could look to combine Peterson with Fitzgerald, which will be an absolutely deadly combo for the future. The Lions AP – Fitz combo is far and away a younger and better than the potential Gore – Edwards and Addai – Johnson combos. Owners beware if the Lions land Fitzgerald, who at only 24 years old has established himself as one of the best wide receivers in the league.
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